Mohamoud Walaaleye
President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh’s furious tirade in Jeune Afrique—denouncing Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a “betrayal,” branding the UAE Israel’s regional “vanguard,” and spinning dark conspiracies about exploitation—sounds more like the bitter complaint of a leader watching his own model crumble than any genuine concern for Horn of Africa stability.
Guelleh insists the move threatens Somali unity and opens the door to nefarious Israeli designs on Somaliland’s territory. The reality is far simpler and far more impressive: Somaliland has spent over three decades proving it is not a breakaway project in need of handouts, but a self-governing, peaceful, democratic entity that actually works.
Since restoring it’s independence in 1991 following a devastating civil war, Somaliland has held multiple competitive elections, built functioning institutions, maintained its own currency, issued passports recognized by growing numbers of countries, and kept Al-Shabaab, piracy, and endless clan conflict at bay—achievements that remain elusive across the fence in Somalia proper.
Israel’s formal recognition in late December 2025 makes it the first UN member state to take that step. Far from a plot for conquest, this is classic realpolitik in a choke-point region. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea remain among the world’s most strategically vital waterways. With Houthi drones and missiles still disrupting global shipping, reliable, stable partners matter more than ever. Somaliland delivers precisely that: security, predictability, and openness to serious cooperation.
At the heart of Guelleh’s irritation lies Berbera Port—the project he cannot match and therefore must demonize. DP World’s multi-hundred-million-dollar investment, backed by long-term UAE commitment, has transformed Berbera into a modern, high-capacity gateway. It already serves landlocked Ethiopia (bolstered by the landmark 2024 Memorandum of Understanding that traded future recognition for sea access), handles growing cargo volumes, and draws serious international attention. Berbera succeeds because Somaliland provides rule of law, investor protections, and actual governance—fundamentals increasingly diluted in Djibouti’s rentier economy.
Djibouti’s prosperity rests almost entirely on leasing patches of desert to foreign militaries: the United States, France, China, Japan, Italy, and others all pay handsome rents for strategic footholds. It is a comfortable but brittle model—steady cash flow without broad-based development, diversification, or genuine political competition. Guelleh, in office since 1999 and now pursuing a sixth term with opposition systematically sidelined, presides over a system widely described as kleptocratic, where power and wealth concentrate in narrow family and clan networks.
Somaliland’s trajectory directly challenges that comfortable stagnation. While Djibouti collects rent checks, Berbera builds real commercial momentum, attracts Gulf capital, secures diplomatic wins, and now opens pathways to Israeli expertise in agriculture, technology, cybersecurity, health, and water management—sectors where Somaliland has repeatedly shown it can absorb and deliver results.
Guelleh’s warnings about an Israeli “base” endangering the region ring hollow. Somaliland has hosted international partners for years without igniting proxy wars or invasions. The only real destabilizing force here is envy: envy of a neighbor that chose merit-based progress over perpetual rent-seeking, envy of actual elections instead of scripted
succession, envy of rising Gulf and now Israeli ties while Djibouti’s model shows its age.
The facts are clear. Somaliland isn’t begging for legitimacy; it is earning it through results. Israel’s recognition is not the problem—it is merely the latest confirmation that the future favors those who govern effectively, invest wisely, and build genuine partnerships.
Somaliland keeps winning. The rest is just noise. #SomalilandRising