The two-day official visit by Somaliland’s President H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro to Addis Ababa wrapped up on a constructive and optimistic tone, as reflected in the succinct statements from the presidential entourage and Ethiopian counterparts.
Initial assessments indicate the engagement wrapped in an encouraging environment, with conversations revolving around vital mutual priorities in socioeconomic development, security, political alignment, and collaborative initiatives.
More than just the formal topics, the evident camaraderie at the summit’s opening and the measured yet upbeat phrasing of its wrap-up highlight its broader importance. This encounter achieved several groundbreaking milestones and unfolded against a backdrop of volatile regional geopolitics:
Key Contextual Highlights:
- Historic In-Person Dialogue
This represented the debut formal, head-of-state encounter between Somaliland President Abdirahman M. Abdillahi Cirro and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. It marked President Cirro’s first meeting with the Ethiopian leader in his capacity as Somaliland’s head of state, joined by a high-ranking governmental team, in response to a direct invitation from the Prime Minister. - Navigating Regional Turbulence
The talks occurred amid profound geopolitical and diplomatic upheavals in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Ethiopia grapples with domestic political intricacies, while the region witnesses fluid alliances—some forging partnerships, others entangled in heated rhetoric or outright hostilities. Notable examples include the recent easing of the acrimonious two-year divide between Ethiopia and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS); enduring frictions with Egypt; fraught ties with Eritrea; and a simmering, though subdued, diplomatic discord with Djibouti under President Ismail Omar Guelleh. - The Stalled MoU in the Spotlight
Timing was everything, as the summit addressed the practical impasse—or contentious legacy—of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The pact has encountered widespread regional and global pushback from influential players, encompassing most Horn of Africa states, the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), IGAD, the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the fiercest critics: Turkey, Egypt, Djibouti, and the FGS. Observers view this visit as a potential turning point to revive or renegotiate the deal’s stalled elements, like port access and infrastructure pledges. - Shadows of Global Rivalries
The discussions played out against intense, simmering contests among major powers—the United States, United Kingdom, China, Russia, and the EU. These actors lack a cohesive playbook for interacting with or capitalizing on the Horn of Africa’s geostrategic weight, particularly the Red Sea corridor and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, both profoundly affected by any enduring Somaliland-Ethiopia pact.
Charting the Path Ahead: The Need for Measured Resolve
The dialogue’s real impact will crystallize over the ensuing months. Both parties acknowledge their indispensable interdependence, with joint efforts anchoring broader regional equilibrium. Yet, forging a definitive, equitable pact on enduring collaboration and reciprocal benefits demands meticulous deliberation.
It is imperative that leaders stay sharply attuned to the intrinsic leverage each side brings to the table. Their partnership ought to be steered by core national imperatives, unshackled from the whims of allies or foes.
Striking harmony between immediate political pressures and visionary long-term objectives is non-negotiable. Impetuous moves, flawed strategies, or shortsightedness could erode the budding trust between these administrations. Vigilance against existential risks to their harmony and neighborly bonds remains essential. In this age of slippery diplomacy, exploitation, and outright duplicity, unwavering integrity is non-negotiable.
Recent events illustrate this starkly:
the FGS leadership has oscillated wildly in allegiances—cozying up to Ethiopia’s rivals (Eritrea and Egypt) one moment, then abruptly courting Addis Ababa the next. This pattern exposes a troubling deficit in prudence, authenticity, and foresight, favoring erratic impulses over principled, interest-driven governance.
A Vital Advisory for Addis Ababa
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali must heed hard-won wisdom from recent missteps: the peril and expense of letting transient figures, such as FGS principals, sabotage Ethiopia’s vital strategic bonds—especially with Somaliland.
FGS’s ex-leader Farmajo, alongside Eritrea’s Afwerki, once derailed Abiy’s focus on his dependable ally, Somaliland. Swiftly, Farmajo exited power, and his replacement shattered the Ethiopian pact, swerving toward Egypt and the Arab League. Meanwhile, Afwerki deserted Abiy, aligning with anti-government Tigray elements.
As history shows, Ethiopia and Abiy rediscovered solace solely in their loyal partner, Somaliland. Abiy is earnestly advised against revisiting such pitfalls. He should steadfastly prioritize Somaliland’s role and avoid any endorsement—overt or veiled—that imperils the Republic’s domestic stability or its pursuit of international legitimacy.
Overlooking this, or extending indirect backing that endangers Somaliland’s cohesion or sovereignty, would provoke an inevitable, self-preserving response from Hargeisa. Somaliland’s latent strengths are formidable, and past challengers have reaped only backlash, repercussions, and remorse.
Short Commentary:
By: Saeed Mohamed Ahmed
By: Saeed Mohamed Ahmed