The Red Sea is no longer just a passage for global commerce, it has become a central arena in the evolving contest for geopolitical influence. Stretching from the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, this maritime corridor carries a substantial portion of the world’s trade and energy supplies. In recent years, increasing instability ranging from piracy to proxy conflicts has heightened the strategic value of this waterway. Within this shifting landscape, a potential alignment between Somaliland, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates is emerging as a pragmatic and forward-looking response to shared security and economic interests.
At the heart of this emerging axis lies Somaliland, a politically stable and strategically positioned territory along the Gulf of Aden. Over more than three decades, it has maintained relative peace, democratic governance, and internal security an achievement that distinguishes it from much of the Horn of Africa. Its coastline sits near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The ongoing development of Berbera Port, supported by Emirati investment, underscores Somaliland’s growing importance as a logistics hub capable of connecting African markets with the Middle East. In a region often characterized by volatility, Somaliland offers reliability, and that reliability is increasingly valuable.
For Israel, the Red Sea represents both opportunity and vulnerability. Through its southern port of Eilat, Israel secures access to Asian and African markets, bypassing traditional Mediterranean routes. However, this access is not without risk. Regional instability, including the activities of Iran-aligned actors, poses ongoing threats to maritime security. As a result, Israel has prioritized safeguarding freedom of navigation and strengthening its strategic depth in the Red Sea. Cooperation with Somaliland could provide Israel with a more proximate vantage point near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, enhancing its maritime awareness and contributing to a broader network of regional partnerships.
A key development strengthening this emerging axis is the advancement of diplomatic relations between Somaliland and Israel. The two sides have moved toward formalizing their relationship through the establishment of official diplomatic ties, including the exchange of ambassadors who will be stationed in each other’s capitals. This step represents a significant milestone, elevating the relationship from informal engagement to structured state-to-state cooperation. It enhances political trust, opens avenues for economic collaboration, and signals a new phase of international engagement for Somaliland. For Israel, it reflects a strategic deepening of its presence in the Horn of Africa and reinforces the foundations of trilateral cooperation.
The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, has established itself as a leading architect of maritime influence across the Red Sea and the wider Indian Ocean region. Through state-linked enterprises such as DP World, the UAE has developed a network of ports and logistics hubs that extend from the Gulf to East Africa. Its investment in Berbera is part of a deliberate strategy to secure critical trade routes and project economic influence. For the UAE, collaboration with both Israel and Somaliland offers a convergence of economic and security interests: strengthening supply chains, enhancing maritime security, and anchoring its presence in the Horn of Africa through a stable and cooperative partner.
This emerging trilateral axis does not need to take the form of a formal alliance to be effective. Instead, it can evolve through incremental and functional cooperation. In the security domain, joint efforts to combat piracy, share intelligence, and monitor maritime threats could significantly improve stability in the Gulf of Aden. Economically, expanding Berbera Port and integrating it with regional trade corridors particularly those linking to landlocked Ethiopia—could transform the region into a vital commercial gateway. Technologically, Israel’s expertise in cybersecurity, surveillance, and resource management can complement UAE investment and Somaliland’s development agenda.
For Somaliland, the implications of such cooperation are profound. Beyond economic gains, this partnership offers a pathway to greater international visibility and legitimacy, particularly as formal diplomatic relationships continue to expand. By positioning itself as a strategic connector between Africa and the Middle East, Somaliland can transition from relative diplomatic isolation to meaningful geopolitical relevance.
At the same time, this strategic vision must be approached with awareness of broader regional sensitivities. The Red Sea remains a complex and competitive geopolitical environment, where external actors including Turkey and Iran continue to pursue their own strategic interests. Without careful diplomacy, increased coordination could risk adding tension to an already sensitive space. These dynamics highlight the importance of a balanced approach that prioritizes transparency, gradualism, and regional dialogue.
To maximize the potential of this axis, policymakers should begin with economic and developmental cooperation, building trust through shared benefits before advancing into more sensitive security arrangements. Framing the partnership as a stabilizing initiative rather than a confrontational bloc will be essential in maintaining regional balance. At the same time, continued investment in governance, institutional capacity, and transparency within Somaliland will be critical to sustaining long-term credibility.
In an era defined by shifting alliances and multipolar competition, the Red Sea has emerged as a critical junction of global power. A strategic axis linking Somaliland, Israel, and the UAE offers a realistic and forward-thinking model for cooperation. If carefully managed, it has the potential to enhance maritime security, unlock new economic opportunities, and contribute to a more stable regional order. For Somaliland, it represents a historic opportunity to redefine its role on the global stage. For Israel and the UAE, it is a chance to shape the future of one of the world’s most vital waterways through partnership, pragmatism, and shared strategic vision.