Somalia’s abrupt cancellation of all bilateral agreements with the United Arab Emirates risks serious economic damage to the country, according to a senior analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
In an interview with i24NEWS, Hussain Abdul-Hussain described the decision as economically self-defeating, pointing out that Somalia’s roughly $10 billion GDP stands in stark contrast to the scale of prior UAE investments in Somali ports, infrastructure, and security arrangements.
The federal government announced the annulment on January 12, terminating cooperation agreements covering the ports of Bosaso and Kismayo, as well as defense, security, and economic partnerships. Mogadishu justified the move by accusing the UAE of violating Somali sovereignty and territorial integrity, most recently through the alleged unauthorized transit of Yemeni Southern Transitional Council leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi across Somali territory.
Abdul-Hussain attributed the federal government’s stance in part to Saudi pressure, suggesting Riyadh sees an opportunity to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa amid shifting dynamics in the Yemen conflict. He cautioned that the rupture deepens existing Gulf rivalries in the region and could further destabilize security around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait.
The UAE has so far issued no official public comment on the decision. Somalia’s government has clarified that full diplomatic relations are not severed, though the longer-term economic and security consequences of the break remain a subject of intense regional concern.