The international community’s response—or lack thereof—to these developments could prove pivotal in shaping the region’s future
Somaliland’s National Intelligence Agency (NIA) has intercepted an alleged assassination squad sent by Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). The squad was reportedly tasked with destabilizing the strategic city of Borama through targeted killings, according to a statement published by the NIA on social media.
The statement adds that two operatives are in custody while six more are under close surveillance. The agency has called for public vigilance, urging citizens to report suspicious activities to a dedicated hotline. This transparency underscores the gravity of the situation and the NIA’s strategy to involve the public in national security efforts.
Recently, the NIA has been notably public in its operations, a shift that coincides with the appointment of its current director awhile back. By sharing details of operations, the agency emphasizes community involvement as a key component of national security.
This transparency has been welcomed by the public, who see it as a demonstration of accountability and an effort to build trust. However, this departure from traditional intelligence methods, which typically operate in the shadows, has sparked some criticism. Experts argue that revealing operational details could compromise the agency’s effectiveness and tip off potential threats. While community involvement is crucial, maintaining a balance between transparency and operational secrecy is essential to ensure national security is not compromised.
This thwarted plot bears striking similarities to security challenges Las Anod, where a series of assassinations and bombings have plunged the region into turmoil. These incidents in Las Anod have been used as a pretext to instigate broader conflict, suggesting a coordinated effort to undermine Somaliland’s stability. Targeting Borama, a crucial cultural and economic hub, indicates a broader strategy to weaken Somaliland’s governance and sovereignty.
The alleged assassination attempt follows a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia on January 1st, 2024. The MoU, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera and formal recognition for Somaliland, has dramatically shifted regional dynamics and further strained already tense relations between Hargeisa and Mogadishu. The MoU showcases Somaliland’s efforts to assert its independence and foster economic development, sharply contrasting with Somalia’s apparent focus on exporting regional instability.
High-ranking Somali officials, including the President and Foreign Minister, have publicly issued threats and declared intentions to destabilize Somaliland in the wake of the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. These statements, documented by SomalilandChronicle.com, coupled with the alleged assassination plot, paint a troubling picture of Somalia as a failed state that, unable to govern its own territory effectively, resorts to exporting chaos to its neighbors.
Somalia’s inability to control its borders, tackle internal extremist threats, or provide basic services to its citizens starkly contrasts with Somaliland’s relative stability and democratic governance. Rather than focusing on internal reconstruction, Somalia appears to be channeling its limited resources into destabilizing a peaceful neighbor, raising serious questions about its priorities and the international community’s continued support.
The MoU has not only aggravated Somalia but also prompted hostile reactions from other regional actors. Notably, Djibouti has shifted from its quasi-neutral stance to open antagonism. Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh seems to have called up every resource at his disposal including extended invitations to anti-Somaliland forces, including those currently engaged in conflict with Somaliland in the eastern Sool region and groups aiming to foment unrest in Awdal. This alignment of regional actors against Somaliland further complicates an already volatile situation.
As tensions mount, Somaliland finds itself in an increasingly under pressure. The foiled assassination attempt in Borama, combined with ongoing instability in Las Anod and growing regional hostility, paints a picture of a peaceful nation surrounded by escalating threats. Despite these challenges, Somaliland continues to pursue stability, economic development, and international recognition, standing as a beacon of relative peace in a troubled region.
The interception of these alleged operatives underscores the real possibility of open conflict between Somaliland and Somalia. It remains unclear whether Somaliland has formally addressed Somalia’s alleged attempts to foment conflict within its borders or brought the matter to any international forum. This silence on the diplomatic front raises questions about Somaliland’s strategy in dealing with external threats.
The international community’s response—or lack thereof—to these developments could prove pivotal in shaping the region’s future. As tensions simmer, the need for transparent dialogue and robust conflict resolution mechanisms becomes increasingly urgent, not just for Somaliland and Somalia, but for regional stability as a whole.
As Somaliland bolsters its defenses and continues its pursuit of international recognition, the stability of the entire Horn of Africa hangs in a precarious balance. The coming weeks may prove critical in determining whether this latest incident becomes a catalyst for diplomatic engagement or a precursor to further escalation.