Former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has reportedly acknowledged that Turkey made a major strategic miscalculation by placing its political and diplomatic weight behind Somalia while overlooking Somaliland, a nation whose strategic importance has grown dramatically in recent years.
Çavuşoğlu’s remarks point to what he described as a costly failure to properly assess the realities on the ground and recognize the enormous strategic value of Somaliland’s location.
Situated along the Gulf of Aden and close to one of the world’s most important maritime corridors, Somaliland has increasingly emerged as a strategic focal point for regional and global powers seeking access, partnerships and influence in the Horn of Africa.
According to Çavuşoğlu, Turkey missed a significant opportunity by failing to recognize Somaliland and instead investing heavily in Somalia. He suggested that Ankara’s support for Somalia did not produce the strategic returns Turkey had expected, while Somaliland—despite its stability, strategic geography and growing international relevance—was largely neglected.
The former minister’s assessment highlights the changing geopolitical calculations surrounding the Horn of Africa. What was once dismissed by some governments as a peripheral nation is increasingly being viewed through the lens of ports, maritime security, trade routes and great-power competition.
A Strategic Bet That May Have Gone Wrong
Turkey has invested heavily in Somalia over the past decade, developing extensive political, military and economic ties with Mogadishu. Ankara has presented its engagement as a long-term strategic partnership.
But Çavuşoğlu’s reported criticism raises a fundamental question: Did Turkey place its strategic bet on the wrong side of the Horn of Africa?
Somaliland’s position on the Gulf of Aden gives it direct proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
That geography has become increasingly valuable as international powers compete for influence across the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the wider Horn of Africa.
Israel’s Recognition Changes the Equation
The debate has gained even greater significance following Israel’s full recognition of Somaliland, a development that has dramatically altered the diplomatic landscape surrounding Hargeisa.
The recognition by a nuclear-armed and technologically advanced state has given Somaliland a major geopolitical boost and underscored its growing importance on the international stage.
For countries that previously dismissed Somaliland or treated its political aspirations as secondary, the new reality presents a difficult strategic calculation.
Somaliland is no longer simply asking the international community to recognize its political aspirations. Its strategic geography, maritime position and expanding international partnerships are increasingly making it an actor that major powers cannot easily ignore.
Those Who Dismissed Somaliland Are Now Recalculating
Çavuşoğlu’s reported remarks therefore come at a particularly significant moment.
Countries that once underestimated Somaliland are increasingly being forced to reconsider its strategic value, while governments that overlooked Hargeisa may now find themselves questioning whether they missed an opportunity that could have had long-term geopolitical significance.
For Somaliland, the emerging picture is increasingly clear: the nation that some once dismissed as strategically insignificant is becoming one of the places where the next chapter of competition for influence in the Horn of Africa may be written.