In a recent interview on the Global Power Shift podcast, Getachew Reda—former interim president of Ethiopia’s Tigray region and current advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on East African Affairs—addressed the ongoing buzz around potential U.S. recognition of Somaliland.
Responding to host Jim Stenman (a veteran journalist with stints at CNN and Reuters), Reda wove in a historical anecdote to underscore Ethiopia’s calculated approach. During a conversation about 15 years ago, then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi discussed the possibility of recognizing Somaliland (a former British protectorate) with a British MP.
He quipped that Ethiopia “will not be the first to recognize Somaliland, but it won’t be the third either.”
Reda reaffirmed this pragmatic posture, signaling that if the U.S. moves first, Ethiopia would likely follow suit without hesitation, viewing it as a catalyst for broader international acceptance. This isn’t mere diplomatic posturing. Reda framed it as a pivotal opportunity for Ethiopia’s long-standing quest for reliable Red Sea access—a “route to sea access” that’s become existential for a nation of 130 million people landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993.
He cautioned against conflating access with outright “ownership of real estate,” advocating for “give and take” arrangements to avert escalation. “One way or another, something’s got to give,” Reda said, while expressing hope to sidestep “all-out war” with neighbors like Eritrea, whose Assab port has been floated in past talks. As a “hard-nosed realist,” he warned that once regional tensions spill over—like “once the worms are out of the can”—containment becomes elusive.
On the U.S. front, momentum has built since Donald Trump’s 2024 reelection. Project 2025—a conservative policy blueprint—explicitly calls for recognizing Somaliland to counter Chinese influence at the U.S.’s Camp Lemonnier base in Djibouti.
Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi has teased that “recognition is on the horizon” after talks with Trump officials, dangling offers of a Berbera military base and mineral deals. Senator Ted Cruz amplified the call in August 2025, urging formal ties to bolster U.S. security in the Gulf of Aden. A bipartisan bill, H.R. 3992 (the “Republic of Somaliland Independence Act”), is also advancing in Congress. If the U.S. greenlights recognition—potentially as early as late 2025—it could unlock a “domino effect,” per Reda, easing Ethiopia’s path to commercial and naval footholds at Berbera.
This aligns with Abiy’s vision of diversified sea routes, reducing reliance on volatile Djibouti (which handles 95% of Ethiopia’s trade) and tense Eritrea negotiations. Economically, it promises lower logistics costs and boosted exports; geopolitically, it positions Ethiopia as a counterweight to China’s Belt and Road ports in the area.
In essence, Reda’s pledge echoes Zenawi’s: Ethiopia eyes the prize but won’t lead the charge. As U.S.-Somaliland talks heat up, this could redefine Horn stability. Watch the full interview here (link-to-interview) for the unfiltered take.