For more than three decades, U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa has rested on a tired formula: aid to Somalia, counterterrorism campaigns against Al-Shabaab, and endless promises of state-building. The results speak for themselves. Billions of dollars spent, no durable progress made, and today Al-Shabaab controls more territory, collects more taxes, and threatens to overwhelm Mogadishu itself. Washington has propped Somalia up on life support but never delivered the stability it promised.
Meanwhile, Somaliland has quietly gone its own way. Since 1991 it has built a functioning democracy, held peaceful transfers of power, and maintained security across its territory — all without a cent of U.S. assistance. It has done what America claims to champion in Africa: free elections, rule of law, and self-reliance. Yet because of an outdated “One Somalia” policy, Somaliland remains unrecognised, punished for its success while failure in Mogadishu is endlessly indulged.
Former U.S. Ambassador Larry André recently urged caution on recognition, arguing instead for maintaining the embassy in Mogadishu, perhaps opening a liaison office in Hargeisa, and above all avoiding recognition for fear of “diplomatic fallout.” But what has caution achieved in the past 34 years? Somalia is weaker, not stronger. Al-Shabaab is bolder, not contained. The real risk lies not in shifting policy but in clinging to one that has already failed.
Somaliland is not asking for charity. It is asking for recognition of what already exists: a sovereign state that governs itself, delivers security, and anchors stability in a fragile region. That is not a gamble; it is common sense.
Recognition would also align neatly with America’s shifting approach to Africa. President Trump has declared a new era: less aid, more trade. America wants partnerships that generate value for both sides, not dependency. Somaliland is tailor-made for this. At the mouth of the Red Sea, it sits on one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. Its expanding port at Berbera, built with DP World, already serves Ethiopia and is poised to become a regional hub. Beyond logistics, Somaliland’s natural resources — fisheries, livestock, renewable energy, and untapped minerals are sectors where U.S. investment could have a transformative impact.
China and other rivals understand this. Beijing has poured resources into Mogadishu to block Somaliland’s rise, funding militias and raising protests whenever Washington so much as entertains engagement. Senator Ted Cruz was right when he observed that China’s anger is itself a reason for America to act. Standing with Somaliland would not only reward democracy; it would also secure U.S. interests at a vital maritime chokepoint, counter China’s influence, and show Africa what a genuine partnership looks like.
The Horn of Africa is at a crossroads. Sticking with Mogadishu alone means repeating the failures of the past. Embracing Somaliland would allow the United States to align rhetoric with reality and open a new chapter in U.S.–Africa relations based on trade, trust, and mutual respect. Recognition would not destabilise the region. On the contrary, it would finally anchor U.S. policy to a partner that has already proved its worth.
America has a choice to make. Somaliland is ready. The question is whether Washington is.
About the Author
Ambassador Bashe Awil Omar is the former Representative of the Republic of Somaliland to the
United Arab Emirates and Kenya. He also served as Chairman of the Somaliland Technical Committee for the MoU with Ethiopia and is currently a Senior Political and Investment Consultant. He writes on diplomacy, economic strategy, and Somaliland’s recognition case.