Somaliland’s quest for statehood recognition appears to have become a chip in an overarching scramble by global powers to secure political, economic, and security interests on the Red Sea. The US, Turkiye, the Gulf states, China, and others all seem to have a vested interest recognizing or rejecting Somaliland’s official secession from Somalia, while Hargeisa looks to be ready to trade off its own interests in its bid to achieve sovereignty.
Last week, during a press briefing following the signing of an agreement aimed at ending decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, US President Donald Trump was asked about his administration’s intentions for Somaliland.
“We’re looking into that right now. Good question actually; another complex one as you know, but we are working on that right now. Somaliland,” said Trump.
Though vague, his response is a follow-up to more concrete overtures from Washington suggesting the US could be in favor of recognizing Somaliland. In June, US Congressman John Scott Perry introduced the ‘Somaliland Independence Act’; reviving recognition efforts from a few years ago. The same month, Hargeisa welcomed a senior US delegation—including US Africa Command chief General Michael Langley —on an official working visit.
Although things have been quiet for the last few weeks, the US President’s remarks have stirred strong reactions; anger from Somalia and celebrations in Hargeisa. Somalilanders believe Trump will sign off on recognition, while Mogadishu maintains Somaliland is part and parcel of Somalia.
“Somaliland remains a peaceful, democratic nation committed to lawful, voluntary humanitarian engagement. Our foreign policy respects international norms, and any discussions with partners, including the US, will be transparent and uphold our sovereignty and democratic values,” reads a statement from Somaliland’s Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adam.
In an interview with The Washington Post in January 2025, Somali President Hassan Sheik Mohamud stated, “We will always have a very good relationship with the United States. We don’t know what the new leadership will come up with, but we do not expect something bad. Some people around President Donald Trump want him to recognize Somaliland.”
He acknowledged that key figures within President Donald Trump’s administration and Republican lawmakers are actively pushing for the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.
Analysts observe the vagueness of Trump’s response last week indicates that while Washington is certainly considering recognizing Somaliland, it has not committed firmly. To them, references to the notion being a “complex one” refer to a purported proposal for Somaliland to serve as a site for the resettlement of Palestinian refugees from Gaza.
The US has not confirmed whether it is engaged in formal discussions with Somaliland on either recognition or resettlement. Still, observers argue that Somaliland is increasingly reliant on an exchange of interests, or give-and-take diplomacy, in its bid to achieve full independence—similar to the maritime access MoU it signed with Ethiopia last year.
The MoU stirred diplomatic and military tensions with Somalia and beyond, before deescalating following Turkiye’s mediation between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh.
The newly elected president of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi (Irro), has backed down from the MoU but has publicly expressed appreciation to Ethiopia and the UK for maintaining support for Somaliland’s quest, which goes back decades.
Somaliland, which reclaimed its independence from Somalia in 1991, has remained largely peaceful and has held multiple democratic elections but has yet to gain international recognition.
On 26 June 1960, the former British Somaliland protectorate obtained independence as the State of Somaliland. During its brief existence, the State of Somaliland received international recognition from 35 countries, including China, Egypt, Ethiopia, France, Ghana, Israel, Libya and the Soviet Union. At the time of independence, US Secretary of State Christian Herter sent a congratulatory message. The United Kingdom signed several bilateral agreements with Somaliland in Hargeisa on June 26, 1960. Queen Elizabeth II was also among those who sent a congratulatory letter on Somaliland independence day.
At the time, Somalia (a former Italian colony) was a UN protectorate.
Somaliland has disengaged itself from Somalia for the past three decades. Efforts to integrate failed in the 1990s, and Turkish-mediated talks that started in 2012 also went nowhere.
For the past three decades, unlike Somalia, Somaliland has enjoyed stable politics, elections, governance and economy. Analysts point out that although it is not recognized as such, Somaliland is among the most democratic states in Africa.
The 2025 ‘Freedom in the World’ report from Freedom House labels Somaliland as ‘partly free’, giving it a score of 43 out of 100. Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea are ‘not free’, scoring just 20, six, and three points, respectively, according to the report.
Nonetheless, the US, both under Democrats and Republicans, has long adhered to the ‘One Somalia’ policy espoused by the UN and the AU, which recognize Somalia’s authority over Somaliland largely due to fears of worsened instability in the Horn and the Middle East.
Today however, the growing strength of Yemen’s Houthis is casting a shadow on the west’s interests on the Red Sea, leading Washington to weigh the benefits of recognizing an independent Somaliland. This would enable US forces to enter into a military alliance with Hargeisa, and use Somaliland as a base for operations targeting Houthis across the sea.
Constantinos Berhe tesfa (PhD), political commentator and former AU anti-graft commissioner, observes that while recognizing Somaliland would require seismic changes in American diplomacy, recognition is likely.
“I think there is some merit in Trump’s remarks,” said Constantinos. “The US needs Somaliland because Yemen has become a complete disaster for the west and for Israel. To control the Houthis, the US and the collective west might be thinking of establishing military bases on the Somaliland coast, to make it easy for them to attack the Houthis from the Red Sea. I think President Trump will recognize Somaliland, because it is a rational thing to do. The US loses nothing from Somalia by recognizing Somaliland. The US is also backing Taiwan’s quest for recognition. In a nutshell, it seems the US is at the tipping point and seriously considering recognizing Somaliland. The British are also in favor.”
He argues that Italy, once a fierce opponent of Somaliland’s recognition, has also changed its tune.
“[Prime Minister] Giorgia Meloni leads a right-wing government. I don’t think Meloni cares whether Somalia is united or Somaliland is recognized. Meloni is a part of a new breed of right wingers,” said Constantinos. “Once the US recognizes Somaliland, it becomes de facto. The EU will follow in its footsteps.”
He cautions that Mogadishu would be better off dealing with its domestic problems than focusing on derailing Somaliland’s push for independence.
“Somalia has to try to be good neighbors with Somaliland. Al-Shabaab is circling-in on Mogadishu. Somalia is not a state per se; it’s still under the protections of the UN and AU. The Somali government is unable to control large parts of Somali territory due to Al-Shabaab,” said Constantinos.
He notes the right to self-determination is enshrined in the UN charter.
“Somaliland deserves what Eritrea, South Sudan, Timor and many new states got. Somaliland wants peace and good relationships with its neighbors,” said Constantinos.
He argues that recognizing Somaliland will help ensure peace in Somalia, the Horn and beyond.
‘The international community also should start negotiating with Al-Shabaab. If Al-Shabaab controls more territory, it becomes a threat to the stability of Somalia and the region. So, bring Al-Shabaab to the table, as has been done in similar cases in other countries around the world. The international community should persuade Al-Shabaab that Somalia deserves democracy. Islamic states have some form of democracy. Somalia cannot solve its crisis with the current stabilization support of the UN and AU. The security operation schemes have only become a financing market. Al-Shabaab has become a formidable force,” added Constantinos.
The Somaliland Foreign Minister has indicated that President Abdirahman AbdillahiIrro is expected to visit Washington soon, noting that Somaliland’s parliament is considering a new law for embassies and diplomats “as we are officially in the process of becoming a recognized nation.”
Sources say Irro is also scheduled for a visit to Addis Ababa soon.