The security arena in Somalia is witnessing the return of the deployment of the Islamic Al Shabab forces with their repeated attacks on the camps of the various federal forces, and many analysts attribute the reason for this to the near end of the tasks of the African security forces with the cessation of US support for the federal state in Somalia and the African security forces stationed inside Somalia, and the possibility of a scenario of Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan following the withdrawal of American forces two years ago has also emerged on the horizon.
The situation in Somalia will not go beyond one of these scenarios:
1- The rapid collapse of the federal government system with the successive control of Al-Shabaab forces over the regions and cities, eventually reaching the capital, with the government fleeing abroad (to Kenya or one of the Gulf countries).
2- The control of Al-Shabaab forces over the rural areas and villages outside Banadir (the capital) with the weakness of government administration in those regions, while the government continues to be present in Mogadishu with the support of some countries that have interests in this government such as Turkey , Ethiopia and some Arabic countries Egypt & Gulf countries, allowing the federal government to continue its work from the capital only.
Also there will be an important question, what is the impact of this on Somaliland?
I see that the resurgence of Al-Shabaab forces in the Somali regions will have a clear impact on activating dormant cells within Somaliland, which have ideological and intellectual loyalty to Al-Shabaab. This will affect the stability within Somaliland if the government does not tighten and activate security and monitoring networks for such cells, which, if they become active and operational, will not be easy to contain.
In general, the situation in Somalia is an inevitable result of the complete reliance on external support in the security and economic programs followed by successive federal governments, which have not sought to create and find an internal solution to the security dilemma that has persisted for several decades.