A major new policy paper from Israel’s influential Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is urging the government to move quickly toward diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Somaliland, describing the self-declared Horn of Africa state as a potential “strategic breakthrough” for Israeli security in the Red Sea.
The report, titled “Tel Aviv Signals New Direction: Somaliland Recognition on the Table,” argues that escalating Houthi attacks on international shipping since late 2023, combined with Iran’s growing influence in the region, have made Somaliland’s strategic location and relative stability indispensable to Israel’s defense posture.
“Somaliland offers Israel a forward operating environment in one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints,” the INSS assessment states. Its 850-kilometer Gulf of Aden coastline and the UAE-upgraded deep-water port at Berbera are seen as ideal platforms for intelligence collection, naval logistics, and drone operations aimed at countering Iranian arms smuggling to Yemen’s Houthis.
The document highlights Somaliland’s stark contrast with neighboring Somalia: regular democratic elections, a functioning central government, low crime. It notes that Somaliland has cooperated with the UAE and Western partners to dismantle al-Shabaab and ISIS cells, earning praise as a rare stable outlier in the region.
Rather than immediate full recognition, which could provoke sharp backlash from Somalia and the African Union, the INSS recommends a cautious, multi-stage approach modeled on Israel’s successful quiet partnerships with Azerbaijan and the UAE before the Abraham Accords.
The report also stresses the need to coordinate with Ethiopia, which signed a controversial January 2024 memorandum granting it access to Berbera in exchange for a pledge to recognize Somaliland—the first such commitment by an African state.
The paper argues that carefully managed engagement, backed by the United States and Gulf allies, could redefine Israel’s standing in Africa and secure vital trade routes that carry 12 percent of global commerce and roughly 30 percent of Israel’s own imports.
The INSS calls for an inter-ministerial task force to be formed by December 2025 to finalize a concrete roadmap. Sources familiar with the discussions say the paper has already been circulated at senior levels in the Prime Minister’s Office, Foreign Ministry, and IDF Planning Directorate.
While no official government response has been issued, diplomatic observers note that quiet Israeli-Somaliland contacts have intensified since 2022, including reported visits by Israeli technical teams to Berbera airfield and growing coordination on counter-terrorism intelligence.
If implemented, recognition of Somaliland would mark Israel’s most significant diplomatic initiative in sub-Saharan Africa in decades and could accelerate a broader realignment of Red Sea security architecture involving the United States, UAE, Ethiopia, and potentially Kenya and Djibouti.
For now, the ball appears to be in Israel’s court—and the clock is ticking as Houthi drones and missiles continue to menace one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.