Over the past decade, the European Union has spent more than $6.8 billion on Somalia through security assistance and humanitarian programs. The aim was to promote peace and build state institutions in the Horn of Africa. But that strategy has failed—while doing real harm to one of the region’s only genuine success story: Somaliland.
Somaliland reasserted its independence in 1991, after the collapse of the union it had voluntarily entered with Somalia in 1960. This wasn’t about secession; it was about survival. In the 1980s, Somalia’s military regime committed genocide against the people of Somaliland, including aerial bombings of cities, mass executions, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. These atrocities are well-documented by the United Nations and international human rights organizations.
Since then, Somaliland has built a functioning, peaceful, and democratic state—without international recognition and with minimal foreign aid. In 2010, it held a free and fair presidential election that led to a peaceful transfer of power. That vote included biometric voter registration—technology still lacking in much of Europe. Western donors praised the process, and quietly suggested that recognition might follow.
But 15 years later, recognition has not come. Instead, the EU clings to a policy that insists Somaliland must remain part of Somalia—a government in Mogadishu that struggles to govern beyond its capital, is fractured by internal conflict, and depends on foreign troops for survival.
Even worse, Somalia’s federal government—emboldened by diplomatic legitimacy and European backing—is now actively trying to destabilize Somaliland. Armed with new weapons and foreign support, it is threatening the peace of a region that has done more for maritime security than any other player. Over 22% of EU trade passes through Somaliland’s coastal waters, which remain free from piracy and terrorism—thanks to Somaliland, not NATO or AMISOM.
Meanwhile, Somalia’s 2026 elections are uncertain, with federal states at odds and no clear path forward. Turkey has seized the opportunity, expanding its military and economic footprint and eyeing control over potential oil and gas reserves. Russia, China, the UAE, and others are also showing interest in the Horn of Africa—especially in Somaliland’s strategic location overlooking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The EU is rapidly losing its leverage.
This failed approach is largely the work of the EU’s External Action Service—an unelected diplomatic corps with little oversight. It has consistently rewarded Mogadishu’s dysfunction while ignoring Somaliland’s proven stability, democracy, and strategic importance.
Somalilanders are justified in feeling betrayed. They’ve met every milestone the West asked them, only to find the goalposts moved again and again. They are now being punished not for failure, but for success.
It’s time for Europe to face reality: Somaliland is not part of Somalia and hasn’t been for over three decades. Asking Somaliland to return to a union with the very regime that once committed genocide against its people is morally indefensible and strategically foolish.
For the sake of peace, regional security, and its own long-term interests, the EU must rethink its policy. If it does not act soon, it will find itself watching from the sidelines as Turkey, Russia, China, and others take the lead.
It’s time to stop rewarding failure—and start recognizing Somaliland.
H.E. Keysar Mohamed
Somaliland Ambassador to the European Union.