By Andrew Korybko
They need to inform his team about them right away, highlight the advantages in taking their side to de-escalate these self-same tensions and remind them of the Asmara Axis’ role therein.
The Horn of Africa has been tense since Eritrea backstabbed Ethiopia after its peace deal with the TPLF, Somalia threatened war with Ethiopia following the latter’s Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, and then Somalia allied with Eritrea and Egypt against Ethiopia. Trump can help mitigate these tensions, seeing as how he promised to end all existing wars and prevent the outbreak of new ones, but his team must urgently be made aware of these problems first.
To that end, Ethiopia and Somaliland must immediately begin lobbying his transition team since most probably don’t have the Horn on the forefront of their minds right now for obvious reasons since it’s not an immediate priority for them, but that could change through creative diplomacy. Somaliland’s quest for international recognition of its redeclaration of independence from one-third of a century ago, its proudly democratic reputation, and its geostrategic location could be the key to having that happen.
Ethiopia is the US’ traditional regional partner and members of its American diaspora turned against the Democrats due to Biden’s support for the TPLF during the Northern Conflict. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also enjoyed excellent relations with Trump during the latter’s first term. These factors can combine to give its leader, diplomats, and activists access to Trump’s transition team or at least members of his next government, after which they can make the case for him to manage tensions in the Horn.
His incentive to do so isn’t just a principled one per his previously mentioned pledge to prevent the outbreak of new wars, but also pragmatic due to the possibility of recognizing Somaliland in exchange for a military base in the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea (GARS) region. Moreover, he could reinstate Ethiopia’s membership in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) that Biden rescinded if US companies are promised privileged access to its rapidly growing economy and privatization bids in return.
Somalia could also cast a heavy shadow over his second term’s African policy due to the risk of Al-Shabaab replicating the Taliban’s capture of Afghanistan upon the possible withdrawal of Ethiopia’s anti-terrorist troops, thus leading to a regional security crisis and a huge embarrassment for the US. He repeatedly lambasted Biden for his bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan so he’d be loathe to experience something similar, though such a scenario might not even be on his radar right now.
Therein lies the national security importance of Ethiopia and Somaliland’s proposed efforts to raise maximum awareness of regional tensions among his team so that they come to see on their own how the US’ interests align with mitigating them as soon as possible. Former Democrat Senator Bob Menendez’s Egyptian corruption scandal also highlights the role of Cairo’s meddling in US foreign policy, which Trump and his team should be reminded of as well in connection with its role in regional tensions.
The US objectively has much more influence over Egypt than the inverse, however, so the first could leverage this to coerce the second into behaving responsibly in the region instead of continuing to stoke the flames of war by encouraging Somalian aggression against Ethiopia and Somaliland. Additionally, Trump is a hardcore anti-communist, which naturally predisposes him to dislike Eritrea’s leftist president. He and his team should therefore also be reminded of that country’s traditionally destabilizing role too.
The stage is therefore set for Trump to mitigate tensions in the Horn provided that Ethiopia and Somaliland successfully inform him and his team about them, highlight the advantages in taking their side to de-escalate these self-same tensions, and remind them of the Asmara Axis’ role therein. To be sure, this part of the world isn’t a priority for him, but that could change if he fears the scenario of Al Shabaab replicating the Taliban’s return to power, the possibility of which Ethiopia must also emphasize.