In the intricate chess game of Horn of Africa geopolitics, Somalia has embraced a strategy so myopic that it threatens to reduce the entire region to ashes. At the heart of this perilous gambit lies a zero-sum mentality that has consumed Mogadishu’s political elite, driving the nation to the brink of self-immolation. The catalyst? The specter of Somaliland’s potential recognition.
The possibility of Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland in exchange for port access and a military base has triggered a paroxysm of irrational fear in Somalia. In the eyes of Mogadishu’s power brokers, Somaliland’s gain is inevitably Somalia’s loss, a simplistic calculus that fails to account for the nuances of regional cooperation and mutual benefit. This zero-sum perspective has become the lens through which Somalia views all regional developments, driving it towards increasingly desperate measures. In its frenzied attempt to thwart Somaliland’s aspirations, Somalia has cast reason to the wind, embracing alliances that promise short-term obstruction at the cost of long-term stability.
Like a wounded animal attracting predators, Somalia’s stench of desperation has drawn the attention of opportunistic powers. Egypt and Turkey have descended upon the war-torn nation, each eager to exploit Somalia’s vulnerability for their own gain. The agreement with Turkey, granting Ankara access to 30% of Somalia’s maritime resources, exemplifies this desperate ploy. This deal not only compromises Somalia’s economic future but also risks entangling it in broader geopolitical conflicts. Turkey’s interest in Somalia is purely commercial, having already secured control over Mogadishu’s airport and port, the two largest sources of income for a country heavily reliant on donor nations. The recent military pact with Ankara further cements Turkey’s grip on Somalia’s vital infrastructure, signaling a troubling trend of external dependency.
The courtship of Egypt, a nation with its own axe to grind against Ethiopia, is a prime example of this reckless strategy. By inviting Egyptian influence into the region, Somalia hopes to create a counterweight to Ethiopian-Somaliland cooperation. Yet in doing so, it has opened Pandora’s box, potentially unleashing forces far beyond its control. Egypt’s primary motive for deepening its involvement in Somalia is rooted in the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Blue Nile. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 90% of its water supply, views the GERD as a dire threat to its water security. By expanding its influence in Somalia, Egypt aims to pressure Ethiopia from multiple fronts, despite Ethiopia’s homecourt advantage and established security buffer zones along their border. The assumption that Egypt can project meaningful power against Ethiopia under these conditions is a strategic miscalculation on Somalia’s part.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia and Somaliland forge ahead with plans for economic integration and shared development. The Port of Berbera in Somaliland, which could serve as a catalyst for regional growth, is seen by Mogadishu not as an opportunity for collaboration but as a threat to be neutralized at all costs. The Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) goes beyond mere port access. It envisions a comprehensive partnership, including economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and potentially, a path to Somaliland’s recognition. This agreement represents a fundamentally different approach to regional politics, one that prioritizes mutual benefits over zero-sum calculations.
Another regional player, Djibouti, has made its disapproval of the MoU very clear. Djibouti, long accustomed to its role as Ethiopia’s primary access to the sea, views the potential diversion of Ethiopian traffic to Somaliland’s ports as an existential threat to its economic lifeline. The loss of its presumed outsized influence over Somaliland also vanishing into thin air did not help President Guelleh’s delicate sensibility. This opposition underscores the far-reaching implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, which has the potential to reshape regional economic dynamics and power balances.
Somalia’s fanatical leadership, hailing these alliances as major successes and its troll factory on social media framing them as though Somalia has become a nuclear power and threatening Ethiopia and Somaliland with annihilation presumably with Egyptian and Turkish muscle, but are oblivious to the inferno they are stoking and the new alliances forming around them. Each move to undermine Somaliland’s position is viewed as a victory in a game where the only acceptable outcome is total domination. Yet with each such “victory,” Somalia edges closer to a precipice from which there may be no return.
Compounding its status as a failed state with all accounts dealing with resurgent Al-Shabaab that is capable of attacking targets in Mogadishu’s presumably secure areas, Somalia has become a vector for instability, its leaders invoking past hostilities between Somalia and Ethiopia and even threatening to partner with same terror groups and relitigate issues of mythical lost Somali lands. But the most egregious is inviting external powers that have zero interest in seeing Somalia succeed in any meaningful way.
The tragedy is compounded by the missed opportunities for genuine regional cooperation. A Somalia secure in its own sovereignty and willing to engage constructively with its neighbors could serve as a cornerstone of stability in the Horn of Africa. Instead, it has chosen a path of confrontation and self-destruction, risking not only its own future but the stability of the entire region.
As the situation intensifies, crucial questions loom: Will Somalia recognize the folly of its approach before it’s too late? Will it continue its self-destructive path, so consumed by its obsession with dragging Somaliland into the fiery gutter that it fails to see the danger to its own future? And how will the opposition from Djibouti and the deepening partnership between Ethiopia and Somaliland reshape the regional balance of power?
The answers to these questions may well determine the fate of the entire Horn of Africa for generations to come. The region stands at a crossroads, and the path chosen in the coming months could either lead to a new era of cooperation and prosperity or plunge the Horn into a maelstrom of conflict from which it may not easily emerge. As Ethiopia and Somaliland take concrete steps towards realizing their partnership, the pressure on Somalia to reconsider its destructive course only intensifies. The coming days and weeks may prove crucial in determining whether reason and cooperation will prevail over the politics of division and self-immolation.