Introduction
The Horn of Africa is a region marked by its complex geopolitical landscape and diverse array of players. A significant development in this context is the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which has garnered extensive attention and raised numerous questions. This MoU represents a crucial juncture for both nations, shaped by a confluence of political, economic, and strategic factors. Understanding the diverse elements that will influence the success of this agreement, including regional diplomatic dynamics, internal political stability, and the broader geopolitical rivalries of the Middle East, is essential. This article explores these dimensions, offering insights and recommendations for fostering stability and progress in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s interest in maintaining and expanding its political and economic influence in the region is paramount. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) leverages its strategic ambitions, which will shape its interactions with Somaliland. Concurrently, the internal political landscape of Somaliland, characterized by clan politics, elections, power-sharing, and governance issues, will significantly influence the MoU’s implementation over the next six months. Regional diplomatic dynamics further complicate the scene.
Turkiye’s role and the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU
Turkiye’s strategic interests and actions in the Horn of Africa, especially in Somalia and its involvement in the Ethiopia-Somaliland maritime agreement, highlight a multifaceted approach combining diplomatic mediation with economic and military interests. Turkiye has hosted two consecutive talks in Ankara between Ethiopia and Somalia aimed at resolving tensions over the Ethiopia-Somaliland maritime MoU since July 2024, with another round scheduled for next month. Turkiye’s mediation underscores its ongoing diplomatic effort to strengthen its role as a key player in regional conflicts. By facilitating these talks, Turkiye aims to project its influence and extend its diplomatic reach in the Horn of Africa.
Economic Interests: Turkiye has significant economic interests in Somalia, primarily focused on exploiting local resources and investing in infrastructure projects. These include investments in roads, airports, and other critical infrastructure that not only serve to boost Somalia’s economy but also enhance Turkiye’s strategic economic foothold in the region.
Military and Security Engagement: Apart from its economic pursuits, Turkiye maintains a substantial military presence in Somalia, evidenced by its largest overseas military training base located in Mogadishu. This base, used for training Somali soldiers, symbolizes Turkiye’s commitment to securing its interests through direct security engagement. The military presence serves multiple purposes: it secures Turkish investments, supports a stable government in Somalia, and provides Turkiye leverage over regional security matters.
Influence on Regional Geopolitics: Turkiye’s involvement in the Horn of Africa is part of a broader strategy to expand its geopolitical influence. By engaging both economically and militarily, Turkiye positions itself as a crucial intermediary capable of shaping political outcomes in the region. Its role in mediating between Ethiopia and Somalia further allows Turkiye to balance its relations with both countries while maintaining a neutral stance in public.
Despite these efforts, Turkiye faces challenges, including criticism of its motives and the sustainability of its investments. Critics argue that Turkiye’s interest in Somalia’s resources could overshadow its diplomatic efforts and potentially lead to dependency or exploitation. Moreover, Turkiye’s balancing act between supporting Somalia’s territorial claims and fostering relations with Somaliland through its support of Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions could strain its relations with either state if not managed carefully.
In conclusion, the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU is a critical element in this dynamic environment, influenced by political, economic, and military considerations.
Current Relational Developments Impacting the MoU
The upcoming elections in Somaliland, along with clan rivalries, will be a critical determinant of the political stability and cohesion necessary for the MoU’s success. The actualization of agreements and partnerships formed under the MoU will require rigorous implementation procedures to ensure tangible outcomes. Moreover, the diplomatic stances of Djibouti, Somalia, and Kenya, whether supportive or oppositional, will play a significant role in shaping the regional acceptance and efficacy of the MoU. Political instability and inter-clan conflicts within Ethiopia and Somalia pose substantial risks to the sustained implementation of the MoU. Furthermore, the geopolitical rivalries involving Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will influence regional dynamics, particularly in relation to trans-boundary issues like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and port access. In a significant recent development, the Turkish Parliament has voted to deploy its navy to the Somali coasts following a defense agreement signed between Somalia and Turkiye.
This move is expected to add another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics, influencing the security landscape and potentially altering the balance of power in the Horn of Africa. Additionally, the role of international bodies, particularly the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), in addressing and shaping the regional political discourse, cannot be overlooked.
Future Prospects and Challenges
Looking ahead, several challenges and prospects emerge. The intensification of military training by Eritrea, accused of training militias from Somalia, could escalate regional military tensions. Turkiye’s involvement in the region, bolstered by its recent naval deployment, will be shaped by its national interests and strategic efforts to counter other Middle Eastern powers. The outcomes of the U.S. elections and leadership changes in the UK will significantly influence the political dynamics in the Horn of Africa. Achieving increased political stability will be crucial for fostering an environment conducive to diplomatic and economic progress. Additionally, emerging military alliances among regional countries will redefine the power dynamics and strategic calculations in the Horn of Africa.
Recommendations for Stability and Progress
To navigate these complexities and foster stability, several strategies should be adopted. Establishing new frameworks aimed at de-escalating tensions and curbing the activities of non-state actors is essential for long-term stability. Promoting effective internal dispute resolution mechanisms and fostering inclusive consultations will help mitigate internal conflicts and promote unity. Conducting comprehensive cost-benefit analyses of regional partnerships and alliances will enable informed decision-making and strategic planning. AS
Hamidi Jama is a maritime security commentator and analyst. He can be reached at hamidijama8@gmail.com