Mohamoud Walaaleye
For thirty-four years, the Republic of Somaliland has been the best-kept secret in the Horn of Africa: a peaceful, democratic, functioning state that the world politely pretended not to see.
While its neighbor Somalia descended into three decades of chaos, Somaliland quietly built itself from the ashes. No foreign peacekeepers. No UN trust fund. Just its own people, their own money, and an iron determination to prove that statehood is earned, not gifted.
They held seven successful elections (one-person, one-vote, observed by international monitors), demobilized militias, printed their own currency, issued passports, built one of the most strategic ports on the planet, and kept the peace while the world looked the other way.
And now, after all the patience immortalized in the Somali proverb “Samraa sadkii hela” – patience reaps its reward – the tide is turning. Fast.
From “Never” to “Not If, But When”
Something changed in 2025. The phrase diplomats once whispered behind closed doors – “Somaliland recognition is a question of when, not if” – is no longer a polite fiction. It’s a calendar item.
The United States has dramatically warmed. High-level AFRICOM delegations now land in Hargeisa instead of Mogadishu. Project 2025 documents openly float recognition as a way to counter Chinese expansion in Djibouti. Even the messy Minnesota feeding scandal – where millions meant for Somali-American children allegedly vanished toward extremist hands – has had the unintended effect of reminding Washington that betting everything on a fragile government in Mogadishu may no longer be the smart play.
Across the Atlantic, Britain – the former colonial power – is having second thoughts about its decades-long loyalty to the “one Somalia” policy. In Tel Aviv, defense planners at the Institute for National Security Studies published a November 2025 paper describing Somaliland as Israel’s “most promising untapped partner” against Houthi missiles and Iranian proxies in the Red Sea.
Add the UAE’s multi-billion-dollar investment in Berbera Port, Ethiopia’s landlocked desperation for secure sea access, and Taiwan’s quiet diplomatic flirtations, and suddenly Somaliland is not begging for a seat at the table – the table is being moved to Somaliland.
December 2025: The Month the World Says Yes?
Whispers in Hargeisa are growing louder: December 2025 could be the month the first domino falls.
President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” has told the public earlier “sound of recognition” is already audible. Intelligence sources speak of closed-door meetings in Washington, London, Abu Dhabi, and Tel Aviv converging on the same timeline. Some even point to a possible surprise announcement from Israel – a move that would shatter the African Union’s tired taboo on post-colonial border changes and trigger a recognition cascade.
Twenty countries, whether leaks or media speculations that surfaced in October, have quietly signaled readiness to follow the first mover.
The Country That Refused to Fail
This is not a story of charity or pity. It is the story of a people who refused to let their country die.
When the central government in Mogadishu collapsed in 1991, Somaliland’s clans could have followed Somalia into the abyss. Instead, reclaimed their independence from the legally invalid union, elders locked themselves in conference halls for years, paid for peace with their own cattle, and stitched a nation back together. While warlords fought over the south, Somaliland’s women opened businesses, its youth went to university, and its ports welcomed ships from across the world.
They did all the homework. They just needed the world to mark the paper.
The Final Chapter?
After 34 years of building a state in plain sight, Somaliland stands on the edge of the moment every schoolchild in Hargeisa has dreamed of: the day a foreign leader steps to a podium and says, “We recognize the Republic of Somaliland.”
When that happens – and the signs say it will happen soon – it won’t just be a diplomatic footnote. It will be one of the most extraordinary underdog victories in modern history.
A people who were told “wait,” who were told “impossible,” who were told “you don’t exist,” are about to walk onto the world stage with their heads high, their flag flying, and their story finally, triumphantly, told.
Patience, after all, reaps its reward.
And Somaliland’s reward is almost here.